Published By: Sanchari Das

WTC Final Qualification: THIS Asian Team Could Shake Up Australia’s Spot in the Final – Here’s How

Locked in or not? The unexpected equation that could shake Australia’s WTC journey

Australia secured a resounding six-wicket win over India in Sydney, clinching the series 3-1 and seemingly sealing their spot in the World Test Championship (WTC) final. It was their first Test series triumph over India since 2014-15 and cemented their place as the dominant force of the cycle. Scheduled to face South Africa at Lord’s in June, all appears set. Or is it? There’s a slight chance that their position could still slip away. It might sound improbable, but cricket thrives on uncertainties.

Australia’s dominance

Australia’s win over India was as decisive as it gets. They outperformed their opponents in every department—tactics, form, and execution. Despite occasional sparks of brilliance, India failed to rise to the occasion. Over-reliance on Jasprit Bumrah and the lack of form from key players hurt them deeply, keeping them out of the WTC final for the first time in three cycles.

Australia looks uncatchable with a PCT (percentage of points won) of 63.73. Their place in the final is almost locked, barring one unique scenario.

The slim path for Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka remains the only team with a faint hope of upsetting Australia. Currently holding a PCT of 45.45, they would need a perfect 2-0 sweep over Australia in their upcoming home series. This would raise their PCT to 53.85. However, even with a 2-0 win, Australia’s PCT would only drop to 57.02. In that case, they would still hold their position. Sri Lanka’s only real chance lies in Australia incurring penalties for slow over rates.

The wild card

Here’s the catch. If Australia loses eight points for slow over rates across the two Tests and Sri Lanka sweeps the series, Australia’s PCT would drop to 53.52. This would put Sri Lanka in the final by a fraction of a point.

While this scenario seems far-fetched, history suggests it’s possible. During the 2023 Ashes, Australia was docked 10 points for slow over rates in one Test. England faced a record 19-point penalty across the series. Earlier, Pakistan lost six points in their series against Bangladesh.

Challenges in Sri Lanka

Australia’s upcoming series in Sri Lanka begins on January 29. The spin-friendly conditions are expected to test their endurance. Historically, relying on spinners helps maintain over rates. However, long fielding sessions, like the 181 overs Australia bowled during Dinesh Chandimal’s double century in their last visit, can strain even the best sides.

Australia’s discipline in the Sydney Test—where they bowled India out in under 80 overs in both innings—shows they can handle the pressure. Yet, the Sri Lankan conditions demand vigilance.

Odds in Australia’s favour

Despite the theoretical risks, Australia’s position remains strong. Their adaptability and experience suggest they are well-equipped to avoid the pitfalls of slow over-rate penalties. Sri Lanka’s task is monumental, requiring perfect cricket and external factors to align.

The bigger picture

The WTC final represents the pinnacle of two years of hard-fought competition. This is a chance for Australia to assert their dominance and claim the coveted mace. While their qualification looks assured, cricket’s unpredictability keeps the door slightly ajar for a twist. As they prepare for their series in Sri Lanka, one thing is clear: Australia must stay sharp to ensure their journey to Lord’s remains unchallenged. They are in control for now, but vigilance will be their greatest ally.