As IMD predicts cyclonic storm Asna, it’s likely that rainfall pattern in Gujarat is expected to continue in the first week of September.
Monsoon has been active over northwest India in August, and the deep depression over Saurashtra has been causing torrents of rain over Gujarat for the past three days. Moving further, the rainfall pattern is expected to continue in the first week of September as well, since meteorologists have predicted that the deep depression will intensify into a tropical cyclone over the Arabian Sea on August 30. The deep depression that formed in the beginning of August over land was mainly due to the moisture from the Arabian Sea and soil moisture from the lands that they have travelled.
As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the tropical cyclone would be called Cyclone Asna. And the reason behind its formation and intensification is mainly due to the unusual monsoon wind system in the current season. It cannot be ruled out that the feat is rare because the formation of depression has happened over the land and the formation of cyclones is expected to happen over the sea. For those caught unaware, the deep depression was situated 60 km northwest of Bhuj and 80 km northeast of Naliya in Gujarat on August 29.
“It is likely to move west-southwestwards, emerge into northeast Arabian Sea off Kachchh and adjoining Saurashtra & Pakistan coasts and intensify into a Cyclonic Storm on 30th August. Thereafter, it would continue to move nearly west-southwestwards over northeast Arabian Sea away from Indian coast during subsequent 2 days,” IMD mentioned in its latest press release.
Coming to Cyclone Asna, it is the first that has occurred in August in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) region since 1981. It is also the first cyclone to be formed in the Arabian Sea since 1976, as mentioned by Down To Earth (DTE). In the past 32 previous cyclones in the NIO region in August, there have only been four cyclones in the Arabian Sea between 1891 and 2023.
By August 29, Gujarat has got over 48 percent excess rainfall in the current monsoon season. The otherwise dry regions of Saurashtra and Kutch saw consequent floods.
Moving ahead, heavy rainfall is expected over northwest India, including Delhi NCR, from September 1 onwards. “Rain will reduce over the next two days over northwest India. But rain will pick up again from September 1 when the monsoon trough shifts again to its normal position. It has shifted to the south of its normal position now. We can also expect isolated heavy to very heavy rain over the region on September 2 and 3,” Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology at Skymet Weather, was quoted by Hindustan Times as saying.
Development of cyclonic storms in August over the Arabian Sea is a rare activity. Between 1891-2023, 3 cyclonic storms developed over the Arabian Sea. Similarly, over the Bay Of Bengal during the last 132 years, there have been 28 such systems recorded in August.
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