Published By: Sayan Paul

La Niña Expected To Arrive Soon: Here's How It May Influence Winter 2024-2025

According to the National Weather Service, La Niña "happens every three to five years and can last for varying durations".

Over the last year, we have seen extreme weather conditions worldwide - all thanks to the El Niño. Now, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), there's a 60% chance of a La Niña emerging this year, influencing the coming winter season (especially in the northern hemisphere) significantly.

The organization recently released its official winter outlook for 2024-2025, sharing how this La Niña may influence the temperature and precipitation trends for the upcoming season. However, they noted that this time it is likely to be weak and short-lived, although there can't be any guarantee regarding the same.

 

(Credit: KTLA)

Contrary to the El Niño, La Niña means cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. In this article, let's learn more about the climate pattern, and understand how it could influence winter 2024-2025.

What is La Niña?

La Niña is a naturally occurring cool phase of the climate cycle, which can have a significant influence on global weather. In simple words, the phenomenon occurs when the surface waters of the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean become cooler than usual. In this condition, the trade winds (that usually blow from east to west across the Pacific, pushing away ocean waters along the western edge of South America) become enormously stronger and bring cold waters from the deep ocean to the coast.

As explained by the NOAA, "Typically, a La Niña is preceded by a buildup of cooler-than-normal subsurface waters in the tropical Pacific. Then, easterly trade winds strengthen, cold upwelling off the west coast of South America and along the equator intensifies, and sea-surface temperatures drop below normal."

 

(Credit: MrTopStep)

These changes in wind patterns and ocean temperatures often result in various extreme weather events.

How It May Influence Winter 2024-2025

CPC forecasters are expecting the La Niña to arrive during fall this year, and last until March next year. According to their predictions, it will result in wetter as well as cooler weather in the northern tier of the United States, and warmer and drier weather in the southern tier.

Experts also suggest that the monsoon cycle that goes through Central and South America is going to be affected by the La Niña. Eastern Argentina and some other parts of South America can be drier than usual, while regions of Venezuela and Columbia can be wetter than usual. On the other hand, there could be above-average temperatures in northern Alaska and below-average temperatures in southern parts. The regions across the Gulf Coast are likely to be on the warm side. Most parts of southern Europe are likely to remain cool and windless in November and December.

 

(Credit: NOAA Climate.gov)

The CPC also highlighted that several parts of the US and neighboring countries could experience drought conditions at least at the end of January.

Samantha Borisoff, a climate scientist at NOAA’s Northeast Regional Climate Center based at Cornell University, said in a statement that the waviness of the jet stream can also result in frequent cold outbreaks, especially in the central U.S. She added that New England, New York, and the Great Lakes areas are likely to be snowier during La Nina winters, however, there's no guarantee.

 

(Credit: Jim Cantore)

Instead of a consistent weather pattern, the coming winter is expected to see frequent weather changes from week to week.