According to the National Weather Service, La Niña "happens every three to five years and can last for varying durations".
Over the last year, we have seen extreme weather conditions worldwide - all thanks to the El Niño. Now, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), there's a 60% chance of a La Niña emerging this year, influencing the coming winter season (especially in the northern hemisphere) significantly.
The organization recently released its official winter outlook for 2024-2025, sharing how this La Niña may influence the temperature and precipitation trends for the upcoming season. However, they noted that this time it is likely to be weak and short-lived, although there can't be any guarantee regarding the same.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its 2024-25 winter outlook, highlighting a “slowly-developing” La Niña that could shape weather throughout the country from December through February. Details: https://t.co/e33LO8epQg pic.twitter.com/eNBJNbCtD9
— KTLA (@KTLA) October 17, 2024
(Credit: KTLA)
Contrary to the El Niño, La Niña means cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. In this article, let's learn more about the climate pattern, and understand how it could influence winter 2024-2025.
La Niña is a naturally occurring cool phase of the climate cycle, which can have a significant influence on global weather. In simple words, the phenomenon occurs when the surface waters of the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean become cooler than usual. In this condition, the trade winds (that usually blow from east to west across the Pacific, pushing away ocean waters along the western edge of South America) become enormously stronger and bring cold waters from the deep ocean to the coast.
As explained by the NOAA, "Typically, a La Niña is preceded by a buildup of cooler-than-normal subsurface waters in the tropical Pacific. Then, easterly trade winds strengthen, cold upwelling off the west coast of South America and along the equator intensifies, and sea-surface temperatures drop below normal."
Sorry folks... Meet #LaNiña
— MrTopStep (@MrTopStep) October 18, 2024
A La Niña winter is coming.
Here’s what that could mean for the US
A weak La Niña is expected to develop ahead of the season and influence temperatures, precipitation, and by extension, even snow across the United States. pic.twitter.com/0yHf2Jf9ok
(Credit: MrTopStep)
These changes in wind patterns and ocean temperatures often result in various extreme weather events.
CPC forecasters are expecting the La Niña to arrive during fall this year, and last until March next year. According to their predictions, it will result in wetter as well as cooler weather in the northern tier of the United States, and warmer and drier weather in the southern tier.
Experts also suggest that the monsoon cycle that goes through Central and South America is going to be affected by the La Niña. Eastern Argentina and some other parts of South America can be drier than usual, while regions of Venezuela and Columbia can be wetter than usual. On the other hand, there could be above-average temperatures in northern Alaska and below-average temperatures in southern parts. The regions across the Gulf Coast are likely to be on the warm side. Most parts of southern Europe are likely to remain cool and windless in November and December.
Neutral conditions persist, but there's a 60% chance that La Niña will develop soon, however it's likely to be a weak event.
— NOAA Climate.gov (@NOAAClimate) October 10, 2024
Read our "spooky season" ENSO Blog update: https://t.co/0U5arVXb2i pic.twitter.com/gk5OXpMjew
(Credit: NOAA Climate.gov)
The CPC also highlighted that several parts of the US and neighboring countries could experience drought conditions at least at the end of January.
Samantha Borisoff, a climate scientist at NOAA’s Northeast Regional Climate Center based at Cornell University, said in a statement that the waviness of the jet stream can also result in frequent cold outbreaks, especially in the central U.S. She added that New England, New York, and the Great Lakes areas are likely to be snowier during La Nina winters, however, there's no guarantee.
Nothing really stands out regarding NOAA winter outlook. Looks wetter across the northern states typical of a weak La Nina signal. I would be most worried about the drought expansion expected across the south (2nd map yellow area) over a large number of states already in… pic.twitter.com/J00t95EmLV
— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) October 18, 2024
(Credit: Jim Cantore)
Instead of a consistent weather pattern, the coming winter is expected to see frequent weather changes from week to week.