Published By: Sanchari Das

WTC Final Scenarios: Win, Draw or Loss – What’s India’s Need of the Hour?

How the Gabba Test could shake up the standings for India, Australia, and beyond

The Border-Gavaskar Trophy is perfectly poised. With the series level at 1-1, all eyes are on the third Test at The Gabba. Known for its challenging pitch, Brisbane promises a gripping contest. This match is more than just about the series; it’s a key moment in the World Test Championship (WTC) for India and Australia. Both teams are fighting not just for victory but also for a stronger position in the WTC standings.

India’s path to the WTC final

India’s qualification hopes hinge on this Test. Currently third in the WTC table with 57.29 percentage points, they need a win to leapfrog Australia. If Rohit Sharma’s team wins, their percentage points will rise to 59.80, moving them into second place. However, India’s batting woes remain a concern, especially in the first innings. With averages of 6.88 and 10 this season, Rohit and Virat Kohli need to step up. Jasprit Bumrah’s brilliance with the ball is India’s biggest asset, but he needs better support from the other bowlers.

Australia’s strategy at The Gabba

Australia knows their position—second in the WTC standings with 60.71 percentage points. A win at Brisbane will solidify their standing and bring them to the level of leaders in South Africa at 63.33 percentage points. Their strategy revolves around negating Bumrah’s initial spell and capitalising on their middle order. While Travis Head has shown match-winning potential, Steve Smith’s struggle with straight-line deliveries could be a weak link. Marnus Labuschagne, despite a half-century in Adelaide, hasn’t found his best form. Adapting to Gabba’s fast-bowling-friendly conditions will be key.

The role of the Gabba pitch and weather

The Gabba’s pitch is notorious for its bounce and pace, favouring fast bowlers. Australia might see this as an advantage, given their potent pace attack. However, the unpredictable Brisbane weather could alter the dynamics. Rain interruptions might break the rhythm of both teams. For India, adapting to these conditions swiftly is crucial. They’ll need contributions from the top and middle orders to counter any Australian advantage.

The WTC standings scenarios

The outcome of this Test will significantly impact the WTC table. A win for India will propel them to second place, swapping positions with Australia. If Australia wins, they’ll remain second but equal South Africa’s 63.33 percentage points. A draw will keep the standings unchanged, with Australia at 58.89 and India at 55.88 percentage points. These shifts underline how tight the race is, with South Africa, India, and Australia leading the charge for the WTC final.

Qualification chances for other teams

While the spotlight is on India and Australia, other teams still have mathematical chances. South Africa’s 63.33 percentage points make them the frontrunners, needing just one win from their remaining two games against Pakistan. With 45.45 points, Sri Lanka must win all their matches and hope for favourable results elsewhere. England, New Zealand, and Pakistan are out of the race, leaving the top three teams to battle for a spot in the final.

A test that shapes the future

The third Test at The Gabba is more than just another match. It’s a clash of strategies, skills, and stakes. For India, it’s a chance to reignite their WTC campaign. For Australia, it’s about solidifying their dominance. Both teams carry the weight of expectations and the knowledge that this game could define their WTC journey. As the cricketing world watches, the outcome will not just decide the series but potentially the WTC finalists.